U.S. Provocations and Israeli Tactics

Much like the U.S. provoked Russia into the Ukraine war nearly two years ago, Israel, under Washington’s protective umbrella, appears to be using the same strategy against Iran. Tel Aviv seems intent on provoking Tehran into a full-scale war. Israel is also maneuvering through Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, where Iran has significant influence. The attacks targeting Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has strong ties to Iran, are a clear example.

Iran's Calculated Response

For a long time, Tehran has maintained composure against Israel’s provocations. However, failing to prevent the assassination of Haniyeh, who was a guest in Iran, has led to a significant loss of global credibility regarding its power and governance. Reports suggest issues within Iran’s intelligence and internal power struggles. While Tehran may seek to show its strength, the sustainability of entering an open war remains highly questionable.

Under the Squeeze of Sanctions

Since the Iraq war, Iran hasn’t engaged in full-scale warfare with its national army but has been active with Shia militia forces in Iraq and Syria. Under international sanctions, Iran has focused more on drone, missile systems, and nuclear technology. It has limited cooperation partners, primarily Russia, China, and North Korea, and faces challenges in accessing spare parts for its air forces.

The Role of the U.S.

The primary power capable of restraining Tel Aviv is Washington. However, with the U.S. presidential elections in November, there is uncertainty about whether there is a willingness or capability to exert such influence. Part of the Israeli lobby in the U.S. seeks to exploit the current void, aiming for more occupation of Palestinian territories and further displacement of Palestinians. Arab countries’ solidarity with Palestine often remains superficial. Historical sectarian divides between Arab-Gulf monarchies and Iran also play a role. The focus now is on Iran’s potential retaliation, which may already be underway as you read this.

Europe and China's Role

As the U.S. increases its military presence in the Mediterranean, it is imperative for Europe to consolidate its position. The flames of conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate the crises in Europe. Brussels, with the support of Berlin and Paris, must take action to find common ground. Similarly, cooperation with China, which has made diplomatic efforts to bring Palestinian factions together, should be pursued despite potential backlash from Washington. This united front could pressure Israel into negotiations. Otherwise, a widespread conflict could extend to Lebanon, Cyprus, and even Europe, affecting large migrant populations.

Possible Outcomes

The tension might persist until the U.S. elections, after which there could be a shift towards a new “Middle East peace process” with a change in Israel’s war management. However, who will account for the lives lost in the interim?

The ongoing events in Palestine, particularly between Fatah and Hamas, illustrate how internal divisions threaten national security. This situation reflects how imperialist powers have manipulated political Islamism in the region for years. As tensions continue to rise, this conflict signifies a challenging period for Turkey as well. Therefore, it is crucial to emphasize a balanced policy prioritizing national interests over sectarian approaches. Turkey must recognize the vital importance of secure borders and uphold the principles of a democratic, secular, and law-abiding state.