Erdoğan is a rather intriguing politician. He doesn't favor a straightforward approach to the country's politics, preferring instead to shape the agenda as much as he can. The rise of Özgür Özel as the leader of the CHP, emerging as a beacon of hope in the party's political strategy and maintaining a presence in the main discourse, seemed to be something Erdoğan couldn't fully accept within his character. He needed to make a new move immediately, and he made not one, but two. Through the Court of Cassation, the Constitutional Court suddenly became a topic of controversy, creating an impression that it lost its status as the primary reference in the judiciary. This fueled new debates about the Constitution. Seizing the moment, Erdoğan began to insistently argue that the 50+1 majority requirement should no longer be the formula for the presidential system, advocating instead for the election of the candidate with the most votes.

I had expressed my disappointment with the apparent lack of confidence or at least the public perception of it in the stance of the Constitutional Court. It was extraordinary for a lower-ranking chamber of the Court of Cassation to express an opinion against a decision of the Constitutional Court and even file a "criminal complaint" against those who made the decision. Could it be that the members of the Constitutional Court are taking a passive position because they feel pressured by the fact that they were appointed by Erdoğan? It's possible. I discussed this with Yekta Güngör Özden, a veteran former President of the Constitutional Court. He said, smiling, "The Constitutional Court has dignity; they do not engage in verbal disputes. They would say to the Court of Cassation, 'Let them say what they will.' If an accusation is made against members of the Constitutional Court, it is the Court itself that should examine it."

Constitutional Court, Erdoğan, and Bahçeli

Decisions by the Constitutional Court, especially in cases like Kavala, that deviate from what they desire, seem to discomfort Erdoğan and his ally Bahçeli. Presumably, they expect them to approve everything without question as their deputies do. This expectation leads to surprise and then a significant reaction. However, Bahçeli's approach is more radical, implying that "abolishing the Constitutional Court is permissible."

My primary curiosity, however, lies in Erdoğan's reasoning for wanting to abandon the 50+1 rule. I believe that this change is not for a future AKP candidate, but for himself. He seems to be laying the groundwork for a fourth candidacy after publicly ensuring his right to re-election. I'm not saying he will succeed, but it's clear he has a desire. Will he try? Possibly. He might introduce this third change after gauging public reaction with two other amendments. Erdoğan loves to change the narrative, but he loves power even more.

The abandonment of the 50+1 rule has been interpreted by the public as Erdoğan's reluctance to continue carrying Bahçeli as a burden. This could be related, especially since Bahçeli announced in this week's group meeting that they don't want to abandon the 50+1 formula! He clearly stated, "The Presidential Government System is not a fleeting whim. Its democratic legitimacy is based on the 50+1 principle." Perhaps Bahçeli has realized that he is as indispensable to Erdoğan as the members of the Constitutional Court. We can imagine echoes of "Et tu, Brute?" in Beştepe... Who knows what cards Erdoğan will play to persuade him?

Özel-İmamoğlu Front

Observing these developments, Özgür Özel has, of course, closed all doors to Erdoğan. Dreams of amending the constitution start with obtaining between 360 and 400 seats in parliament. It seems impossible for Erdoğan to achieve this number.

İmamoğlu, on the other hand, attaches great importance to the constitutional debates. Whether it's the 50+1 rule or the most-vote formula, İmamoğlu sees himself as the most likely presidential candidate. While maintaining "abstract dialogues" with the HDP in his hinterland, he's probably planning how to persuade Akşener, who has closed doors to alliances. Fed up with their leader's impulsive outbursts, members of the İYİ Party have started to resign. Are we surprised by this developments? Not really. İmamoğlu might persuade Akşener tomorrow, but we might hear her say, "I was pressured, I regret it," the next day or later. This has become Akşener's public perception. We will see as we live through it…