"Iran does not engage in war, it makes others fight"
Professor Hüseyin Bağcı, a faculty member at METU, stated that Iran is unlikely to carry out retaliatory strikes against Israel, noting, "It is very difficult for Iran to retaliate directly.
It might attempt an attack through Hezbollah. For Iran, attacking Israel means attacking the U.S., the U.K., and the European Union (EU). Turkey would not side with Iran, and even Russia has advised Iran against such an attack."
On the 312th day of Israel’s attacks on Gaza, Iran’s announcement of a potential retaliation for the assassination of former Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh remains a hot topic. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) suggested that Iran could be planning a joint attack with Hezbollah, as tensions continue between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel. Speaking to Cumhuriyet about recent developments, Professor Hüseyin Bağcı, founder of the Ankara Global Consultancy Group and a faculty member at METU, noted that ceasefire talks for the Gaza War are likely to take place on the 15th of the month, with both sides striving for a ceasefire. He also emphasized that if Hezbollah were to attack Israel, Israel would respond strongly. “Hezbollah will not attack without orders from Iran. This is not a Hezbollah-Israel issue; it’s an Iran-Israel issue. Iran will not attack. It is very difficult for Iran to retaliate. It might try to attack through Hezbollah, but Israel's retaliation against Hezbollah would be inevitable,” Bağcı explained.
SINWAR PUSHING IRAN FORWARD
Bağcı reminded that Iran has not directly attacked any of its neighbors in its modern history, stating, "Iran does not engage in war; it makes others fight. An attack by Iran on Israel would be tantamount to declaring war. Yesterday, the U.S. State Department issued a statement saying, 'We stand behind Israel.' For Iran, attacking Israel would mean attacking the U.S., the U.K., and the EU. Turkey would not be on Iran's side, and Russia has also advised Iran against attacking. If Iran were to attack Israel, no one, including Turkey, would come to its aid." Bağcı also mentioned that the election of Yahya Sinwar as Hamas's new leader does not benefit Iran and that Sinwar is pushing for Iranian assistance for Hamas’s activities. He concluded, “Iran is not inclined to enter into a direct conflict with Israel. If a ceasefire is not reached by the 15th, tensions will continue, but they will not escalate into war.”
