How will the NATO summit impact the Ukraine War?

As the Russia-Ukraine war rages on, the 75th NATO summit, where Ukraine's membership in NATO was also expected to be discussed, concluded in the U.S. One of the most anticipated issues for NATO was what awaited the alliance if a second Trump term began in November. The far-right wing of the Republicans, led by Trump, not only opposed supporting Ukraine but also blocked military packages prepared by the Democrats from passing through Congress for about eight months.

In this situation, not only the Democrats but also all elements within NATO that wish to support Ukraine are striving to prevent their efforts from being obstructed by Trump. In recent months, Western officials have been working on "Trump-proof Ukraine support." This effort included a multi-year aid package amounting to $107 billion. However, according to the U.S. foreign policy website Foreign Policy, not all members were consulted about the package. Even key alliance countries like France and Germany stated that they were not adequately consulted.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, on the brink of retirement, mentioned that $40 billion in annual aid had been provided so far and hoped for its continuation.

'I Invite Mr. Putin to the Stage'

President Joe Biden's health has been a topic of discussion for some time. Following the disastrous presidential debate, where even his own party questioned his candidacy, Biden made a more serious gaffe at the NATO summit. While inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to the stage, Biden said, "Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Ukrainian President Mr. Putin."

Zelensky's disappointment was not limited to Biden's surprising announcement. Since 2022, Ukraine has been expecting serious steps from NATO regarding membership. Zelensky's sharp reaction dominated the previous NATO summit, where he emphasized that "Ukraine should not be delayed any further." This time, however, Zelensky had to settle for Stoltenberg's statement that "Ukraine is on an irreversible path to membership." Significant obstacles remain to Ukraine's NATO membership.

Obstacles to Membership

Firstly, Ukraine must allocate 2% of its annual national income to NATO. With its economy in shambles due to the invasion, Ukraine has been surviving on $68 billion in budget support from the West since the war began. It seems unlikely that Ukraine can set aside such a budget for this expenditure.

Moreover, Ukraine needs to address its worsening corruption problem. At the start of the war, there were allegations in the West that aid to Ukraine was being diverted to the black market. Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy even claimed that weapons sent to Ukraine ended up in the hands of Mexican cartels. If even some of these allegations are true, Ukraine's NATO membership would be in jeopardy.

Lastly, the biggest obstacle to membership is Russia. The ongoing active conflict and the fact that parts of Ukraine are still under Russian control virtually eliminate Ukraine's hope of joining NATO. Even in the event of a ceasefire, the absence of a definitive peace with Russia could prevent NATO members from approving Ukraine's membership due to the fear of a potential world war.

Additionally, there are dissenting voices within NATO. Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey have policies toward Russia that differ from the rest of the West. While Turkey maintains an independent relationship with Ukraine, it has not severed ties with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico view Ukraine's accession to NATO as an event that could ignite World War III.

What Will the Ukraine Compact Entail?

While the NATO membership debate remains unresolved, the summit was not a complete loss for Ukraine. Several countries announced they would provide ammunition and battery support for Ukraine's air defense, which is currently its biggest challenge on the front. Joe Biden also announced that a new Patriot battery would be sent to Ukraine.

The "Ukraine Compact" security framework aims to facilitate better and longer-term coordination among countries that wish to support Ukraine. This initiative seeks to prevent a rift that could arise with Trump's potential return in November. If sustained support is secured, it would not be surprising for the war to continue for several more years.

However, ultimate authority will still rest with the president. If Trump is not convinced, support for Ukraine, while not completely halted, would significantly decrease, impacting the battlefield.

Meanwhile, it must be noted that the situation on the ground is not developing in Ukraine's favor. According to Western expert Michael Kofman, who has visited Ukraine multiple times during the war, although Ukraine's firepower is beginning to approach that of Russia following a military support package that barely passed through the U.S. Congress, manpower issues persist. It is still too early to assess the impact of lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. Meanwhile, Russia's opening of a new front at the Belgorod border has forced Ukraine to divert its defense forces there. Consequently, Russia is making faster advances along the Donetsk line. Although no major breakthrough has occurred yet, if Russia plans a new offensive, especially in the northeastern Sumy region, it is likely to be seen around late July or early August.

The next NATO summit will be held in Turkey in 2025.