Ukraine War and absence of Putin and Xi expected to impact G20 Summit
Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia's war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress, and global cooperation on climate change when the world's most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.
The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India's presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible.
However, China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, not President Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed President Vladimir Putin's absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.
That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salman, and Japan's Fumio Kishida.
A failed summit would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers, prompting countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with, analysts said.
"To tackle global threats, 'breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn't what you want,'" said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
Failing to forge a consensus will also hurt the diplomatic credentials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the presidency to bolster New Delhi's position as an economic powerhouse and a leader of the global south.
"If the leaders' summit is a flop, New Delhi, and especially Modi, will have suffered a major diplomatic and political setback," Kugelman said.
India, which has not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement - the so-called Leaders Declaration - or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.
"The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit," a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. "Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard."
