From Wagner's Revolt to Prigozhin's Death: Is Wagner's Fate Sealed?

Wagner, a name intertwined with the Ukraine War since its inception, now faces one of its most challenging periods. The tragic loss of seven key figures within the mercenary group, including Yevgeni Prigozhin, prompts questions about the company's continuity.

Within Russia, criticism directed at the Putin administration has intensified, led by Wagner and Prigozhin. The group's recent insurgent activity, launched two months ago, initiated a transformative process within Russia. While the Wagner group reconciled with Vladimir Putin following mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the general sentiment did not signal Putin's absolution. The initial video post on the night of the uprising by Sergey Surovikin, a prominent commander closely associated with the Wagners, bore the message "return to your barracks". Curiously, Surovikin disappeared from public view after the situation was "resolved". Reports from the banned Moscow Times suggested Surovikin's detainment.

PUTİN'S HAND FOR ‘PEACE’

Putin's immediate response after the incident was directed at the Wagner commanders. During a Moscow meeting, he said, "You're either with me or against me" While most commanders reportedly accepted Putin's ultimatum, the question arises: what became of these personnel?

A glance at the figures provides context. According to Wagner commander "Marx", a total of 78,000 personnel engaged in the "business trip" in Ukraine. Among these, 49,000 were recruited from prisons. The Wagner group's telegram accounts cite 22,000 personnel lost and 40,000 wounded in Ukraine. Presently, approximately 10,000 Wagner members reside in Belarus. Allegedly, 33,000 personnel accepted Putin's offer. Evidently, a considerable number of wounded either resumed service or disparities exist in the reported numbers. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of personnel has evidently integrated into the Russian army. Designated as "Storm Z" units, these groups, led by Wagner commanders, encompass mainly prisoner participants—akin to Wagner's composition. These units spearhead Russia's northern offensive operations.

NO PARDON EXPECTED

Simultaneously, Putin's focus shifts to prominent figures criticizing the conduct of the war, with Igor Girkin as a prime example. Girkin, a long-time participant in the Ukrainian civil war from Donetsk, gained notoriety for the 2014 downing of a Malaysian airliner. In the aftermath of the 2022 invasion, he emerged as a leading "pessimist". Detained for asserting, "As long as there are these cowards in the Kremlin, the Russian Federation will only last 5-6 years", Girkin symbolized Russia's critical voices. Similar fate befell Russian commander Ivan Popov, who was dismissed after highlighting army-related issues to superiors. Popov stated, "I couldn't fabricate falsehoods for my fallen comrades".

WAGNER'S FATE

In a recent statement, Vladimir Putin acknowledged, "We will not forget Wagner's contribution to the war in Ukraine". This suggests an imminent restructuring. However, Wagner is unlikely to dissolve completely. Despite the passing of founder Dimitri Utkin and CEO Yevgeni Prigozhin, surviving commanders, especially those pivotal to the capture of Bakhmut, may step into leadership roles. Thus, Wagner may either persist under Putin-loyal leadership or rebrand. As the Central African Republic's security advisor remarked, "Russia could replace Wagner with Beethoven, and we would continue to cooperate".

Nevertheless, Wagner retains a legendary status. On the uprising's day, civilians applauded Prigozhin, and some even distributed sandwiches to soldiers. This group, with three films depicting its involvement in the Ukrainian war, once adorned banners across the nation. While the uprising has led to its decline, it is still regarded as heroic by many Russians. Some Wagner members vow "revenge" for Prigojin. Memorials for Prigozhin and Utkin have surfaced in various cities. Although not necessarily comparable to the riot's armored convoys, "lone wolf" actions—spurred by genuine vengeance or manipulative intelligence groups—remain possible. The full extent of damage from Russia's Wagner saga remains uncertain.