Tahrir al-Sham prepares to invade Afrin, Turkish Military on alert

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that HTS militants, with a convoy of heavily armed vehicles, arrived at the Afrin border and tried to advance toward the city center. Turkey-backed opposition groups stopped them at the Gazaviye border. With the intervention of the Turkish military, HTS militants retreated. The observatory stated that areas controlled by Turkish forces and HTS are connected by the Deyr Balut and Gazaviye border crossings.

Sources of Income for HTS

HTS supports the Ahrar Avlan Group, which operates smuggling activities in the al-Bab countryside. After clashes with Ahrar al-Sham in June 2017, HTS took control of the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, generating $10-15 million per month. To prevent a terrorist organization from gaining control, Turkey restricted the passage of non-humanitarian goods and began monitoring the border with drones.

HTS unofficially manages crossings by maintaining civilian authority at the border and through the General Administration of Crossings. They also control the Afrin-Gazaviye and Dorriyeh borders but do not have a presence at the other two official border crossings with Turkey.

Taxation Policy

Before the Syrian Army's December 2019 operation, HTS controlled crossing points in Hama, but these were closed due to the Syrian Army's advance. HTS is working to reopen them.

The organization imposes taxes ranging from $3 to $7 per ton on goods entering Idlib and charges $500 for agricultural machinery parts. According to a former HTS commander, the income from the Morek crossing alone was about $800,000 per month. With other crossings, this amount reached $1.5 million per month.

HTS's Objectives in Afrin

HTS previously attempted to enter Afrin in June and October 2022. During Turkey's efforts to reconcile with Damascus, HTS collaborated with some groups within the Syrian National Army (SNA). While some SNA groups resisted HTS's advance, Turkish intelligence and the Turkish Armed Forces intervened, freezing the disagreements and ensuring HTS returned to Idlib.

Regional sources indicate that HTS is preparing to undermine Turkey's reconciliation with Damascus. While trying to expand its territory from Idlib, HTS also aims to gain U.S. support by reaching an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a PKK linked insurgent umbrella organization in Syria. It is also reported that HTS and PKK/PYD made an oil agreement in recent months.

Background on HTS

Led by Syrian Abu Mohammad al-Julani, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is an active Salafi jihadist organization involved in the Syrian Civil War. HTS was formed on January 28, 2017, from the merger of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Nusra Front), Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement.

After the merger, other groups and individuals joined the organization. Currently, HTS is led by former Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and former Ahrar al-Sham leaders.

HTS was formed by many groups and individuals who left Ahrar al-Sham, representing more conservative and Salafi elements. Some analysts and media outlets continue to refer to this group as Nusra Front or Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The perception of HTS as the representative of al-Qaeda in Syria and claims that its top leaders are connected to al-Qaeda led the Ansar al-Din Front and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement to break away from HTS and operate independently.

Despite these claims, HTS does not acknowledge being al-Qaeda's branch in Syria and claims that the organization is independent. During its formation, HTS declared that it is not an extension of any previous organizations or factions but an independent group. Some factions, such as the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, which joined the merger, were once supported by the U.S.

Russian authorities believe that HTS aims to turn Syria into an Islamic emirate under al-Qaeda.