Scary report for Kayseri: Potential for 7.5 magnitude earthquake revealed

Adnan Evsen explained that there have been 17 historical records of earthquakes around Kayseri, with the most significant instrumentally recorded earthquake being a magnitude 5.4 since 1940. Historical records suggest the intensity scales could reach 8 or 9.

Significant Findings from MTA

Evsen emphasized the importance of the recent MTA study, which was part of the "Geodynamics of Turkey's Crust" project. The findings, published on MTA's website in February and presented a few days ago, include paleoseismological studies that reveal significant details about the fault lines around Kayseri. These studies determined the fault types, maximum magnitudes, slip rates, and recurrence periods of earthquakes.

The study revealed that the Yeşilhisar, İncesu, Erkilet, and Erciyes faults exhibit both strike-slip and normal fault characteristics. From the paleoseismological data, it was found that these faults have experienced a total of 14 earthquakes since 25,400 BC.

Additionally, on the Erkilet segment, two surface-rupturing earthquakes of magnitudes 6.3 and 6.7 were identified. Previously, earthquakes were evaluated based on historical and instrumental records, estimating a maximum magnitude of 6.2. However, recent findings indicate that the Erkilet Fault Zone can produce earthquakes up to magnitude 7.5, the Yeşilhisar Fault Zone up to magnitude 6.7, the İncesu Fault Zone up to magnitude 6.6, and the Erciyes Fault Zone up to magnitude 7.3.

Potential Earthquake Risk in Erkilet, Erciyes, and Yeşilhisar Fault Zones

Evsen noted that the recurrence intervals for the Yeşilhisar, Erkilet, and Erciyes Fault Zones have been determined as approximately 3,000, 4,000, and 5,000 years, respectively. The last recorded earthquakes occurred around 7,000 years ago for Yeşilhisar, 7,500 years ago for Erkilet, and 15,000 years ago for Erciyes. Given these intervals, there is a potential for earthquakes in these zones.

Impact of Earthquake Magnitude

Evsen highlighted that while there is only a mathematical difference of one point between magnitudes 6 and 7, the logarithmic scale translates this into a tenfold difference. This means that ten earthquakes of magnitude 6 are equivalent to one earthquake of magnitude 7 in terms of energy release. The previous estimates of 6.2 magnitude risks have now increased to 7.5, indicating a 13-fold difference in potential impact.

Areas Most Affected by a 7.5 Magnitude Earthquake

Evsen warned that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake would significantly impact areas within a 100-kilometer radius, including Kayseri city center, Kocasinan, Melikgazi, Talas, İncesu, and Yeşilhisar.

This new information underscores the need for heightened awareness and preparedness for potential seismic activity in the region.