Financial Times analysis: Erdogan in the search for balance

Financial Times published on Thursday an article covering the prospective influence of the Erdogan's visit to Ukraine and Turkey-Russia bilateral relations. 

"The Turkish president, for years accused by the west of turning towards Moscow and abandoning Nato, has not only repeatedly warned of the dangers of a Russian incursion into Ukraine but has also supplied the country with weapons including armed drones.

That support has pleased Ankara’s Nato allies but also carries great risks for Turkey, analysts say, given the country’s economic reliance on Russia and the risk that Putin could use gas, tourism, trade and the conflict in Syria as political weapons against Erdogan."

"WE VALUE TURKISH SUPPORT TO UKRAINE"

Author Laura Pitel added that "the Turkish president’s trip to Kyiv, which will mark the 30th anniversary of bilateral relations, was long planned as part of a decade-long push to build economic, cultural and political ties. Erdogan has billed the visit as an attempt at mediation, saying last week that Turkey was 'upset' by an 'atmosphere of war in the region.'

But the decision to go ahead is being viewed in Kyiv as highly symbolic. 'Turkey took the final decision to come knowing it would be seen as support for Ukraine,' said Vasyl Bodnar, the country’s ambassador to Ankara. 'We highly value it.”

RUSSIAN S-400 AND U.S. F-35 SALES TO TURKEY

In the analysis, it is reminded that "Turkey opposed Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, driven by a centuries’ long suspicion of Russian expansionism and concern for the Crimean Tatar minority.

Erdogan’s relationship with Putin, however, has grown much closer in the years since then, spurred by his growing isolation from the west.

The Turkish president’s decision to buy a Russian S-400 air defence system in the aftermath of a 2016 coup attempt prompted claims that Turkey had abandoned Nato and led the US to expel Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet programme.

Despite warm personal ties between Erdogan and Putin, however, the two leaders have often found themselves competing rather than co-operating — especially in the realm of foreign policy. Turkish officials frequently point out that they have backed the opposite side to the Russians in conflicts in Syria, Libya and in the Caucasus."